Behavioral economists claim that people rely on what they call 'anchors' when making decisions. Essentially, it is an arbitrary bit of information within a domain that a person first used to orient themselves to the state of affairs. For example, the price of a stock when they first purchased it. As new information streams in, they will always refer back to this initial purchase as an 'cognitive anchor'. Even far in to the future, decision to some degree are still based on this anchor.
In our decision making process, our ability to understand the ratio between what we know and what we are about to learn is where the party is happening. This is the difference that makes a difference and is fundamental to how we perceive and then understand change. How we understand change is core to decision making.
As we form new ways to communicate risk related information throughout our organizations, we should take some time to understand their cognitive anchors. Useful questions include: When this person experiences this new information, what prior knowledge or what anchor will they be using to form their understanding? If have the privilege of it being the first time they experience this information, what will be the most appropriate anchor for future updates?
Magicians are craftsmen in carefully dropping these anchors so that your understanding is being tailored by their actions and under their complete control. Lets take that magic and invert it. Lets make sure that our audience has the most appropriate anchors so that they are not being misled but informed on the possible and plausible outcomes they face in their decision making process.
