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Don’t Make Predictions Just Once a Year

Make them every day!

To be brutally honest, it makes me sick to see everyone come out of the woodwork to make his or her predictions for the next year. Are you volleying for one ups man ship? Do you somehow think that your once a year estimate for the next 12 months will provide true insight to someone else?


In order to pull yourself out of the quagmire of reaction and move into pro-action (is that a word) you must estimate the next move at each and every turn. Don’t make predictions just once a year…make them everyday, every hour and every minute.

Comments (2)

bsonne:

I feel the same way, kind of. I wonder what makes people feel the need to package culture up into 365-day-wide chunks, instead of dealing with it dynamically. The longer it takes for a prediction to come to fruition, the more incredibly specific it ought to be :)

jrichards:

Harsh. I think that 'end of the year' is a perfect time to reflect on what has passed and what may be to come. It has nothing to do with 'one ups man ship'. True insight? It is simply an exercise of thinking and making your thoughts available to others.

*note: We are always looking at the future, always looking forward.

However, we take significant dates and times such as this and invest our time in summarizing our thoughts so that others can read, reflect, and hopefully respond. We do this not just as security professionals but in many parts of our culture... best songs of 2005, best movie, best this, top-ten list that.

I'm not suggesting we should do this just once a year. But if we're going to choose a time to 'publish' our thoughts on it once a year, this is most certainly the time to do it... When everyone else is reflective.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 22, 2005 9:06 AM.

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